Thanks again for another insightful article, Ben. I concur with your assessment that "Option 1: Endure." is most likely. If Putin can get away with it an Russia continues it's supine endurance, I fear that Europe's populations will lose interest. But surely even most European public realise that Trump's USA is no longer reliable, and that Ukraine is Europe's FRONT LINE against Russia?
Thanks for the comment. I think people in Europe are coming to accept the situation and that’s why the region’s attitude is hardening, defence budgets are growing and the European nations are trying to become less reliant on the US.
…EU still sucking on their “security blanket” scared of deadly wounded toothless sociopath hoping Ukraine will pick up the slack, for how long they will play stupid?
One of the more disciplined option breakdowns I've read on this — keeping "most likely" and "most dangerous" as separate questions is what most of these analyses collapse together. One thing worth adding on the manpower side: the economic squeeze you describe may cut the other way for recruitment. A deepening downturn lowers the price of a soldier. As regional unemployment climbs past what Rosstat reports and real incomes fall across much of the country, the contract stops being a bonus-driven choice and becomes the only viable income for a lot of men. So Russia may not need to keep raising payments — a worse economy does some of the recruiting for it.
Thanks again for another insightful article, Ben. I concur with your assessment that "Option 1: Endure." is most likely. If Putin can get away with it an Russia continues it's supine endurance, I fear that Europe's populations will lose interest. But surely even most European public realise that Trump's USA is no longer reliable, and that Ukraine is Europe's FRONT LINE against Russia?
Thanks for the comment. I think people in Europe are coming to accept the situation and that’s why the region’s attitude is hardening, defence budgets are growing and the European nations are trying to become less reliant on the US.
…naturally
…EU still sucking on their “security blanket” scared of deadly wounded toothless sociopath hoping Ukraine will pick up the slack, for how long they will play stupid?
Another interesting article Ben.
Thanks Charles
One of the more disciplined option breakdowns I've read on this — keeping "most likely" and "most dangerous" as separate questions is what most of these analyses collapse together. One thing worth adding on the manpower side: the economic squeeze you describe may cut the other way for recruitment. A deepening downturn lowers the price of a soldier. As regional unemployment climbs past what Rosstat reports and real incomes fall across much of the country, the contract stops being a bonus-driven choice and becomes the only viable income for a lot of men. So Russia may not need to keep raising payments — a worse economy does some of the recruiting for it.
Hi and thanks for the comment. I had not thought of the impact on recruiting that an economic down turn could have and it is a good point.