Pacific Brief 27 October 2024

Australia announces $ 4.7 billion missile purchase

Last week, Australia announced that it intends to procure American Standard Missile 2 and Standard Missile 6 air defence missiles.  This purchase is another example of Australia’s deepening defence commitment, and highlights the nation’s concerns about regional security.

‘Standard Missile’ is the name for a family of US designed, ship launched missiles.  The Standard Missile 2 or RIM-66, is a medium range air defence missile. It has a range of about 170 km and can engage a range of targets including aircraft, missiles or drones. The Standard 6 Missile or RIM-174 Standard Extended Range Active Missile, is a newer and more advanced long-range air defence missile that can hit targets about 450km away. It can also attack ground targets at similar ranges.

Australian warship, HMAS Sydney has the distinction of being the first non-American ship to test fire a Standard Missile 6, during Exercise RIMPAC 2024.

Being part of the American family of naval missiles means that Australian warships weapon mounts and fire control systems are easily upgraded to use the new missiles, and from a technological perspective this purchase is an update rather than a leap forwards.

Instead, the procurement is noteworthy because of its size and scale.  An important lesson from current conflict is that high-tech weapons are time-consuming to produce and can be difficult to replace quickly. Therefore, it is important to have large enough reserves to maintain operations if conflict breaks out.  A ship without air defence is missiles is useless in either high-intensity conflict or in less intense operations like several navies are currently conducting escorting ships in the Red Sea.  Australia is clearly buying sufficient stock of these weapons so that they have enough reserves to maintain operations for a reasonable period of time. A procurement of this size and scale indicates that Australian politicians and military planners are worried about the potential for high-intensity conflict in the region, and are also considering long-term low intensity operation like protecting shipping in the Red Sea.

The situation around Taiwan remains tense

China continued large military exercises near Taiwan last week.  Chinese forces operating from the island of Niushan, about 105 kilometres from Taiwan, conducted live-firing drills and including firing missiles. Meanwhile at sea and in the air Chinese forces conducted a range of activities designed to intimidate Taiwan and test its defences, both for intelligence purposes and to wear down the nation’s defence forces. 

China’s persistent, threatening exercises near Taiwan are part of a wider hybrid war campaign.  The exercises are not only threatening but also continuously test Taiwan’s defences tiring the nation’s soldiers, sailors and aircrews that are forced to respond, just-in-case.  The responses will be observed and carefully studied by the Chinese military to provide intelligence. But most importantly the exercises normalise Chinese military activity, making it harder to tell if an operation is real or simply another exercise. 

It is a dangerous situation for Taiwan, that has appreciated that China’s most likely course of action is a blockade, rather than an invasion.  A blockade is a much lower risk option than trying to invade the heavily defended island. Further, a blockade provides more ‘grey’ areas for Taiwan’s supporters to consider before they respond.

Last week Taiwan’s parliament received a cross-government report outlining a series of plan being to mitigate the risk of a blockade.  Essentially, Taiwan is developing a national plan to withstand a siege including stockpiling food, planning to maintain power supplied and manage economic impacts. It is evidence of how seriously Taiwan is taking the threat of Chinese intervention.

New Zealand investigates replacing lost ship

A couple of weeks ago the HMNZS Manawanui, hit a reef and sank off the Samoan coast.  The New Zealand Defence Force has deployed a salvage team to Samoa and is currently working hard with local authorities to minimise the environmental impact of the incident.

Meanwhile the Royal New Zealand Navy (RNZN) is working hard to look at alternatives, Radio New Zealand reporting this week that “The Defence Force is looking at how much work is required to bring one of its offshore patrol vessels (OPVs) to operational capacity after the sinking of its specialist dive ship HMNZS Manawanui.” The navies OPVs are very lightly-armed, long-range patrol ships.

New Zealand’s OPVs were designed to conduct long patrols in the Southern Ocean and in the South Pacific. Monitoring New Zealand and other smaller nations Exclusive Economic Zones, preventing smuggling, supporting disaster relief and resupplying research stations in the sub-Antarctic islands. The RNZN has two OPVs, HMNZ Wellington and HMNZS Otago both of which are nearing the end of their expected service life.

However, in recent years the RNZN has struggled to crew ships meaning that the two OPVs are currently inactive.  Naval News website reporting on 18 July 2024 that, “Three vessels are tied up at Devonport Naval Base in Auckland under “care and custody”: two offshore patrol vessels (the OPVs HMNZS Otago and Wellington) plus the inshore patrol craft HMNZS Hawea.”

The loss of HMNZS Manawanui means that one of these ships may be brought back into active service.  However, the capabilities of the vessels are very different.  HMNZS Manawanui was designed for diving and salvage. It had diving facilities, a 100-tonne crane, hydrographic survey equipment and the ability to operate remote underwater vehicles. The ship could also carry 800 tonnes of deck cargo. A set of capabilities that an OPV does not have.

Last week, we discussed the how the loss of HMNZS Manawanui will impact on New Zealand’s defence budget, sharpening already tough discussions about defence spending.  Specifically, New Zealand faces tough questions regarding its naval capability because many vessels in the current fleet are reaching the end of their service lives. A situation that provides opportunities for change. Naval News reporting that “Having so many vessels due for replacement – two frigates, two OPVs, an inshore patrol craft, multirole vessel and hydrographic survey/diving support vessel – provides a unique opportunity for the Royal New Zealand Navy to craft and customise its future fleet.”

And, over the next few months as the defence capability review is completed observers will start to see how the New Zealand Defence Force responds to the challenge, and the opportunity it presents for radical change.  One way to increase the effectiveness of the fleet, is to embrace uncrewed, remote or autonomous vessels that allow for greater surveillance and strike capabilities with less ships and fewer people.

The Maritime Component Commander, Commodore Garin Golding is on-record stating that “The future fleet is a combination of crewed and uncrewed, and so the ability for us to understand what are the limitations, but also the benefits of uncrewed systems going forward, is a unique opportunity.”  The RNZN is already experimenting with the Bluebottle Uncrewed Surface Vessel, and is likely to be engaged with the Royal Australian Navy’s experimentation in this area. 

Likewise, we should expect to see operation of aerial drones from ships being integrated into future fleet planning.  The South-West Pacific in which New Zealand forces are most likely to deploy is a littoral realm that in the future may be dominated by vessels like USS Lewis B Puller or HMNZS Canterbury, rather than by sleek warships.  Versitile multi-role ships able to land and support ground forces, small enough to get into tight harbours or channels but with deck spaces to operate air drones, and with lifting equipment to launch and recover sea drones.  The drones providing long-range surveillance and strike capabilities, while modular missile packs could be installed to provide protection from air attack during higher intensity operations.

Essentially, the future shape of a war ship is evolving and New Zealand defence review was already an opportunity for naval innovation. The loss of HMNZS Manawanui provides greater incentive to look at innovative solutions.  So, it will be interesting to see how the situation develops.

Melanesian update

A regular update on the Pacific’s least reported trouble spot; Melanesia.

Fighting continues in Papua New Guinea’s Enga Province

Enga Province suffered more inter-tribal violence last week, a bus being attacked and riddled with bullets. Details are scarce but Radio New Zealand and Papua New Guinean paper the Post Courier both reported multiple fatalities. The Guardian reports that seven people were killed, the different figures demonstrating how remote the area is and the difficulties associated with getting accurate information.

This attack is yet another example of the level of violence and lawlessness prevalent in some parts of Papua New Guinea.  An especially noteworthy point is the easy availability of firearms in the region, fighting in the highlands involving relatively well-armed groups using automatic weapons.

Access to modern weapons is becoming easier in the Melanesia and the South-West Pacific, and this will have an impact on security and stability.  Based on the current level of violence and access to firearms a well-organised insurgent group operating in the highlands could quickly become a significant threat to stability. The limitation on the development of insurgency to-date, has not been access to weapons but rather the lack of a centralised ideological platform.

If an insurgent movement did develop, Papua New Guinea’s very limited law enforcement and military infra-structure would be unlikely to be able to counter it.  This makes support from other nations vital, so countries like the US and Australia should be investing heavily in not just building relationships with the Papua New Guinea’s security forces, but also their capability.